Polling and Projections

Polling and Projections

Tuesday 23 May 2023

We’ve put the latest ITV Wales / YouGov Wales Westminster poll through our model for the 32 constituencies which will likely be in place for the next General Election. The usual caveats about universal swing apply.

It suggested the following seat share:

Labour – 28
Plaid Cymru – 2
Conservatives – 1
Liberal Democrats – 1

Our model indicates that the Conservatives would narrowly win Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, whilst the Liberal Democrats would win Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe by a small margin.

Thursday 18 May 2023

The team at Camlas have run the latest Redfield and Wilton poll through our in-house model for the proposed 96 seat 2026 Senedd election. Our model is based on best guesses for constituency pairings and uses constituency vote share for its data. The usual caveats for universal swing also apply.

Here are the results based on the constituency percentages

Labour – 47 seats 
Conservatives – 23 seats 
Plaid Cymru – 22 seats 
Reform UK – 3 seats 
Liberal Democrats – 1 seat 

Here are the results based on the regional percentages

Labour – 38 seats
Plaid Cymru – 26 seats
Conservatives – 23 seats
Liberal Democrats – 5 seats 
Reform UK – 4 seats